Ayesha Naseem Mirza, UK
For a war that does not easily escalate and is raging without active negotiations or diplomacy to end it, the seemingly powerful nations often make an extra effort to escalate it, ensuring that not only does the conflict continue, but it also worsens.
It started with Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but now, almost three years later, if one asks how and when it might be ending, the response would be a faint silence. Who knows how this will end?
When this war started, Western nations claimed that while supporting Ukraine militarily was necessary to repel this invasion, giving Ukraine tanks, fighter jets, long-range missiles, or considering the country’s inclusion into NATO or the EU, would all be acts that would provoke and even trigger an all-out war directly between NATO member states and Russia.
Although these countries initially committed to supporting Ukraine militarily, it came as no surprise that the support then crossed every red line the West had set for itself. Supporting a war with resources is also an involvement in the war – a strategy that can never end one, but it can certainly escalate and prolong it.
November 2024 was marked with reckless escalations to the war. US President Joe Biden authorised Ukraine to use US-made long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russian territory. Hours after this authorisation, Ukraine launched over a dozen missiles targeting Russia. Ukraine also fired the UK-supplied Storm Shadow Missiles against targets in Russia. (“Biden authorizes Ukraine to use US-supplied longer range missiles for deeper strikes inside Russia”, www.apnews.com, 18 November 2024)
All of this – President Putin warned back in September – would be actions that Russia would consider as acts of war from NATO. (“First Thing: Putin warns Nato over Ukraine missiles”, www.theguardian.com, 13 September 2024)
It was not surprising, then, that on 21 November 2024, President Putin authorised the Russian military to deploy intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) against Ukraine. (“Russia fired new ballistic missile at Ukraine, Putin says”, www.reuters.com, 21 November 2024)
IRBMs are an unstoppable force of mass destruction, meaning that this was a move not just retaliatory but incredibly unprecedented. It certainly changed the course of the war, and it most definitely sent a reminder to the West that Russia was not just bluffing with warnings.
Apart from all this, in the same week, there were also reports that NATO urged their businesses to prepare for war-time scenario, France and the UK were to consider possible deploying of troops in Ukraine and German Interior Ministry was drafting lists of all potential places that could be used as bunkers and shelters by civilians in the event of a war in Europe. (“Germany draws up list of bunkers amid Russia tensions”, www.theguardian.com, 25 November 2024; “Discussions over sending European troops to Ukraine reignited”, www.lemonde.fr, 25 November 2024; “Top NATO official calls on business leaders to prepare for ‘wartime scenario’”, www.reuters.com, 25 November 2024)
Anyone well-versed with history and current affairs knows that this is a textbook, word-for-word scenario of how global wars ignite. Equally bewildering are the ways in which Western leaders are escalating the war which is ultimately going to force them to prepare for war at their own borders. Instead of acknowledging this to seek an end to the current conflict, they are merely concerned with maintaining a narrative that only fuels things further.
During an address to the National Peace Symposium in 2023 hosted by the Ahmadiyya Muslim Association UK, Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad, Hazrat Khalifatul Masih Vaa said:
“The Holy Quran has instructed that every possible opportunity to achieve peace must be pursued, no matter how remote the chances of success are. In chapter 49, verse 10, Allah the Almighty states that when two nations are at war, third parties should seek to reconcile them and draw them to a peaceful settlement. If the aggressor continues to wage war, it is up to other nations to join forces and use proportionate and legitimate force to stop the oppressor. However, once their cruelties cease, unjust retribution or revenge must not be exacted.” (“Global Muslim Leader Urges Good-Faith Negotiations In Peace Plan For Ukraine”, www.pressahmadiyya.com, 8 March 2023)
Furthermore, Hazrat Khalifatul Masih Vaa stated:
“I believe it is essential to keep the channels of communication open and to strive to find mutually acceptable terms of agreement. If, however, the aggressor remains bent on causing misery and destruction and refuses to withdraw, Islam teaches that other nations should join together as one and use proportionate and necessary force to end the cruelties […]
“The objective of the intervening parties must remain, at all times, to establish peace instead of seeking revenge or humiliating the aggressor. Nor should the underlying intention ever be to line one’s pockets or to exploit the conflict to advance vested interests. Otherwise, those who have been demeaned will undoubtedly harbour a sense of injustice and resentment. Such frustrations are bound to eventually boil over and lead to further conflict and so the cycle of incessant violence will continue to rotate with ever greater fury.” (Ibid.)
A change of tone in recent days
There seems to be a shift in attitude on both the Russian and Ukrainian side. In an exclusive interview with Sky News recently, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has, for the first time, taken a significantly different and softer tone for a proposal to seek a ceasefire to the war. (“Sky News speaks exclusively to President Zelenskyy about Putin, NATO and Trump”, www.news.sky.com, 29 November 2024)
He suggested that the war in his country could end without completely taking back territories occupied by Russia under Kyiv’s control. In his interview with Sky News, Zelenskyy suggested that land controlled by the Ukrainian army could be taken under the NATO umbrella to end the “hot war” and then diplomacy used to regain the remainder. (“Russia-Ukraine Latest”, www.guardian.com, 30 November 2024)
President Putin also suggested that he hopes that with President Trump taking office in January next year, an end to the war can be achieved soon. During his visit to Kazakhstan, Putin spoke to reporters and criticised President Joe Biden for creating “additional difficulties” for the incoming Trump administration by significantly escalating tensions with Russia by allowing Ukraine to fire longer-range American missiles (ATACMS) at targets deep inside Russia. (“Russian President Vladimir Putin says Trump is ‘intelligent and experienced,’ capable of finding ‘solutions’”, www.edition.cnn.com, 28 November 2024)
Asked whether Biden’s decision would impact future relations between Moscow and Washington, Putin reiterated his warning of striking Ukraine again with intermediate ballistic missiles, but suggested things could improve after Trump takes office in January. “As far as I can imagine, the newly elected president is an intelligent and already quite experienced person. I think he will find a solution,” Putin said. (Ibid.)
While this shift is offering a silver lining of hope – things are still far too dangerous and unpredictable. With western rhetoric and actions increasingly becoming escalatory, Russia has also been intensifying its warnings. The use of intermediate ballistic missiles and further threats to do it again is no ordinary warning when the missile utilises projectile motion to deliver warheads to a target.
The unconventional qualities of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) make them commonly used for delivering thermonuclear weapons. A thermonuclear weapon, also known as a fusion weapon or hydrogen bomb, is classified as a second-generation nuclear weapon. Unlike the cumbersome nuclear weapons often portrayed in popular media, modern second-generation weapons are much more compact. Some ICBMs can even carry multiple warheads, allowing each one to strike a different target. Although countries that possess nuclear weapons are dangerous, the immediate focus is on countries with operational ICBMs because if a weapon cannot even reach its intended enemy – there is no use. (“What’s the Difference Between a Hypersonic Missile and ICBM?”, www.newsweek.com, 21 November 2024)
International involvement makes regional conflicts global
The easiest way to expand and escalate a conflict is through nations picking sides in a fight that is not directly theirs. In the case of Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine is immensely dependent on the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe for military and financial support to continue its fight against Russia. Without their involvement through support with fighter-jets, tanks, missiles and drones, Ukraine would struggle to sustain its defence.
In the same way, Russia, although far more powerful militarily and financially than Ukraine, has received North Korean troops to support the war effort on the ground. (“North Korea troops have joined Ukraine war battles as part of Russian units, Seoul says”, www.reuters.com, 20 November 2024)
Addressing the National Peace Symposium earlier this year hosted by the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community UK, Hazrat Khalifatul Masih Vaa said:
“History teaches us that internal conflicts can spiral into regional wars – often fuelled by the interference and influence of external powers who ferment instability and division in other countries to serve their interests. In recent decades, we have witnessed the devastating consequences of such interference in countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Syria and Sudan.” (“Global Muslim Leader Urges Good-Faith Negotiations In Peace Plan For Ukraine”, www.pressahmadiyya.com, 8 March 2023)
This sort of external involvement can only escalate the war and indeed, it certainly has. It also increases animosity between nations for picking sides against each other. In this case, huge packages of sanctions against Russia by Western nations have also negatively influenced international relations.
Furthermore, with so much concerted support from the West for Ukraine to fight but with no support or attempt from them to bring two sides to negotiate and diplomatically end the war suggests injustice to the overall dire need for peace. Russia sees that NATO and the Western powers are deliberately arming Ukraine for a war that is not theirs to fight while the West wants Ukraine to win because it fears Russia won’t stop if Ukraine falls. Inevitably, war is not in any side’s interest, yet it is the only path being pursued.
Regarding this, Hazrat Khalifatul Masih Vaa urged the international community during the National Peace Symposium UK earlier this year:
“Thereafter, instead of inciting their respective allies towards further warfare, all members of the international community should prioritise ensuring relief efforts are stepped up to help those in desperate need and focus on bringing about a lasting and peaceful settlement […] If, instead, we stand by and let these wars escalate further, countless more innocent lives will be lost, and, surely, history will judge us with contempt as the authors of our own destruction and misery.” (“Global Muslim Leader Urges Good-Faith Negotiations In Peace Plan For Ukraine”, www.pressahmadiyya.com, 8 March 2023)
Conclusion
With President-elect Donald Trump entering the White House soon with his campaign pledge to bring an end to wars and with the changing tone regarding the possible end to the war by Ukraine, there is some glimmer of hope. As the world prepares to begin the new year, there is hope and prayer for a better and a more peaceful world.
To conclude with the blessed words of guidance and hope from Hazrat Khalifatul Masih Vaa:
“For many years, I have warned of the risks of a full-scale world war and have spoken of how its deadly and destructive consequences are far beyond our comprehension. Having long warned of such a war, I take no satisfaction in the fact that we are moving ever closer to it and that others are now expressing similar sentiments and fears. Rather, I feel only grief and anguish as I see the world hurtling ever faster towards a terrifying world war in which the lives of millions of innocent people will be lost or permanently destroyed. […]
“What kind of future will we leave behind to those who are yet to come? Instead of bestowing a legacy of peace and prosperity to our future generations, our parting gift to them will be nothing except death, destruction and misery. Certainly, it is my grave fear that today’s geopolitical tensions could spiral out of all control and ultimately lead to a nuclear war[…]
“Thus, with all my heart, I pray that may Allah the Almighty have mercy upon humanity and may the people of the world, especially its leaders and policymakers, see sense before it is too late.” (“Global Muslim Leader Urges Good-Faith Negotiations In Peace Plan For Ukraine”, www.pressahmadiyya.com, 8 March 2023)